Snow-ball theory

There are many different interpretations of how "snowball theory" may have played out in practice. Here are several compelling examples

A Personal Critique

"I've always envisioned government involvement in the study of UFOs as a bit of a tight-rope walk.

Back in the '50s and '60s there were a number of powerful constituents writing to high-level DOD/USAF officials and congressmen flatly stating that the study of UFOs was a waste of tax-payers money. These same people worded themselves in such a way as to suggest they would use their power or platform to deride officials who didn't acquiesce. There's a long paper trail evidencing this. Phillip Klass was a particularly aggressive budget-pincher (Firestorm; Druffel, Ann).

On the flip-side of the coin there were the tinfoil crazies like Adamski advocating "space brothers" and the galactic federation, which didn't lend credibility to the governments argument that they needed to study the subject further.

Now add in various cognitive biases like "it can't be therefore it isn't" and peoples susceptibility to ridicule. I must have read several dozen accounts relating how the USAF approached the problem in an open-minded fashion during the Project SIGN days only to completely change their position after the team sent the Estimate of the Situation (supporting the ET hypothesis) up to Vandenberg. Following that Dir. Ruppelt spelled it out clearly: the senior brass disassembled the group and aptly renamed the investigation to Project GRUDGE.

The final component that I imagine motivated the armed forces was the "technological advantage," "psychological warfare," "panic the public" and the general "cultural of secrecy" angle. Throw in the Cold War and you have a recipe for a very tight-lipped military.

So I see several axises emerge here:

1. Political pressure (more against than for)
2. Media involvement (more against than for)
3. Personal bias and emotion (more against than for)
4. Desire to keep cards close to the military's chest for a host of reasons (could be the Russians, new technology that could be used to the US's advantage, to allay possible domestic upheaval -- which could be used to the enemy's advantage, etc)

Now bake that for few years and imagine a worst case scenario (i.e. the '52 White House flyover). Have a person with a high rank and station in government (Gen. Samford), say a few words that aren't entirely on the level to the public and that starts the ball rolling. It's at that point that CYA theory kicks in to effect.

A few years later in '55, with a new secret aircraft coming down the pipeline, counter-intelligence becomes a serious motivation with UFOs providing a perfect cover for U2 flights. Unfortunately as most intelligence officers will tell you there's something called the, "blowback principle." Which boils down to, "once you start to manufacture a lie there's no telling what repercussions will follow or whether or not even the people who started the mythology end up believing their own myth."

Now consider the confusion involved where one government agency like the USAF was conducting an investigation into UFOs through Project Blue Book (which also had the task of playing down reports - gee I wonder why ) while the CIA independently and simultaneously manufactured lies to cover TS aerospace projects. The fabricated stories all the sudden become official Blue Book reports.

Since the two branches didn't work together, in effect, there's no good way to sort the garbage in from the garbage out.

Thereby completing the circle-jerk.

People who know about the disinformation campaign have no real motivation to talk because it's their arse is on the line (CYA theory). These people start to leave government and the people that come in behind them are left to sort out what's what from information on file, what they observe themselves, and based on their own biases. Eventually the myth takes on a life of its own and, sadly, all data has in effect become polluted.